What happens when new habits replace old habits?
In a year of pandemic fuelled disruption nary a business or industry made it through 2020 without being significantly impacted – some for the better; many for the worse. Those businesses impacted the most were those whose business depends on the regular trade from loyal consumers.
As consumers, we are all creatures of habit – some good, some bad, some neither good nor bad. The thing about habits is that it is rare for us to change our habits unless there is a reason to. In 2020 we had plenty of reasons imposed upon us that forced us to change the way we live, what we do and how we do things. And I’m guessing that many of us subsequently developed new habits.
But will we return to the old habits when the shackles of pandemic oppression are removed?
The other week I was seeing my osteo Ally, and I was explaining how I was analysing how consumer behaviours had changed from 2019 to 2021. My hypothesis I explained was that many people had changed their habits due to the pandemic. Instead of yawning and changing subject while wondering why she was stuck listening to my ponderings, Ally reflected on her own experience and said, “I think you’re right.”
Ally explained that she has played netball since junior competition and had played every year since. Over the past few years she had considered having a break from netball to avoid the commitment of training and Saturday competition and doing something else. But each year the season would roll around, her team-mates would ask her down to training and before she knew it, she was signed up for another season.
Sure, she loved the sport and her team-mates, but playing competitive sport requires a significant time commitment and she was thinking that maybe she might be missing out on other things. Enter COVID-19.
For many sports, the 2020 season was effectively put on ice, and for Ally she was unable to play netball. With her weekends back to herself and no training during the week she developed new interests and enjoyed the freedom of having a whole weekend to herself, partner and friends.
The 2021 season is kicking off, and Ally is not playing.
She has developed new habits. And these new habits replaced the old habits of being a netball player.
Consumer behaviours are more or less a bunch of habits that we follow. We think we are in control of what we do and when we do it, but most of the day we’re just following a schedule of habits that are responses to triggers.
If you’ve read Charles Duhigg’s The Power of Habit, James Clear’s Atomic Habits or Nir Eyal's Hooked, none of this will be incredibly surprising. Habits are made up of cues that act as triggers that launch routines, that deliver us rewards - The Habit Loop.
Working with sporting organisations and clubs, I have noticed that there is considerable pondering about what fans will do when sport comes back – and even some questioning about whether they will they come back. For many sports fans, when they do get back to watching their favourite sport, it probably won’t be like they remember.
Do you think that a year of not being able go to see their beloved team play in a sport they have passionately followed for a lifetime would change a fan’s feeling about sport? Surely after such a long absence they would be champing at the bit to be back in the stadium cheering for their team.
But what if it’s not the same?
What if the things that occupied their time when sport was missing in action were actually pretty enjoyable?
What if we’ve learned to live without sports?
What if the spectre of losing jobs, health and loved ones from a pandemic that has ravaged the world has changed our perspective on life, and sport isn’t just that important anymore?
Could it be that a year of being banished to the lounge room to watch sport played in front of empty stadiums with fake crowd noise has diminished the joy of sport? It’s not fake news, but could it be fake sport?
Sport is not just something we watch. For most fans, it’s a shared experience that we get to enjoy with our friends and a community of likeminded lunatics that follow the same team.
Is being a fan a habit?
In 2021 and beyond, going to watch sport like football may well involve wearing a mask, in smaller crowds, needing to reserve seats in advance, and even accepting different options for eating and drinking at a game. If the conditions that surround the experience of going to and watching live sport fundamentally change, will it change the way fans feel about the sport?
After all, aren’t sports fans nothing more than consumers with a social habit that is centred around sport? Not a bad habit, but nevertheless a habit.
The Cues
As fans we respond to the cues that tell us a new season is coming. The weather changes, the media ramps up reporting, we start receiving communications from the club, and people start talking about who they think is going to win.
The Routine
These cues ignite our interest and set us on a path of wanting the season to start – we start craving for our sport to start. We respond by consuming all forms of content about how our team is preparing and what their chances of success are. We move into a routine that happens every season, looking at the fixtures, paying for our season ticket or membership and reconnecting with friends to coordinate what games we will go to together.
The Reward
The ultimate reward is the whole experience of game day watching our team duke it out with the hated competition (let’s call them Carlton). Then we can review the commentary, replays and reports of the game as we look to the next game – and so it begins – and continues.
In an earlier article of mine about the irrational nature of fans, Andrew Hunting reminded me that fan passion is not just about watching the game. The experience of going to a game is not just the game, it’s the lead up and the post event activities that are part of the whole experience.
Andrew commented:
"Always a good feeling to have something to look forward to. Then there's the escapism of going to a game, which lets you step out of your everyday life for a few hours. The pre-game at the pub. Meeting friends and family. The walk to the ground surrounded by excited kids (and adults, to be honest). Even going through the gate gets the heart pumping a little bit. Then a story full of ups, downs, joy, disappointment and everything in-between is about to written in front of you by exceptional athletes doing incredible things. And you never know, you might snag a win. But I think once you come to love the whole experience then you might be disappointed by the result but you'll always love going. I think the clubs that tap into this more are better at engaging and maintaining their fans."
It's a great summary view of planning and enjoying a day at the footy. But will it be the same in 2021 and beyond? How will the new world of living with COVID-19 change that whole experience? And will a whole year without sport have caused fans to replace attending sports with something else?
Research in social science suggests that we are more inclined to make habit changes at times of significant life events or changes. One big one is birthday’s around decades – 29 to 30, 39 to 40 and so on. Apparently these artificial milestones that we celebrate are also catalysts for turning vegan, deciding to run a marathon, giving up the booze or changing careers.
Likewise are other major life events such as losing a loved one, career changes, moving, ill-health, getting married, relationships ending, having kids, social upheaval and big world events. And I’m thinking maybe pandemics fit the brief too.
The world we live in from 2021 onwards is much different to the world we lived in before 2020. The world has changed, and as consumers we have changed. So too has sport, and how we follow sport.
While I have no doubt that fans will pony up their membership fees and line up to go and see their favourite sport and club having been starved of it for a year, there is no guarantee that they’ll stay engaged. As human beings, we’re all susceptible to memory bias and in particular rosy retrospection when we judge events from the past disproportionately more positively than they were.
If the new experience doesn’t live up to expectations, what will fans do?
Will they fall out of love with their club?
Will they look at those new habits they had created that filled the void of no sport and consider going back to them?
Will they just follow sport from the comfort of their lounge room like they did last year?
The truth is, we have no idea. However, we can safely assume that without some kind of effort, losing fans forever is a very real and distinct possibility.
I suspect that 2021 will see many fans flood back to their game desperate to relive the joy of watching their team, and to most, all will look like normality has been restored. But if the experience doesn’t stack up and fans aren’t nurtured into a new way of following sport and engaging their team, I think 2022 could see a massive drop off in interest and membership.
The clubs that can engage their fans and re-engage them to invigorate and renew old habits and build amazing and rewarding new habits have the best chance of keeping fans and winning new fans.
To do this clubs need to invest in understanding WHO fans are and WHY they are fans. Only then will it be possible to create meaningful engagement and deliver value that will win their hearts, minds and habits.
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Graham Plant is CEO of metafan, a company committed to helping organisations understand and engage their fans through data and insight.
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